Trent Oeltjan who?

I can't pronounce his name, but Trent Oetljan is making his major league debut right now and doing everything he can to stay. He hit his first major league home run (an 8th inning shot to tie the game), got on base two more times (once in the top of the 10th), stole 2 bases (to move in to scoring position in the 10th), and also made an outfield assist.

Trent Oeltjan who? He signed with the twins in 2001 as an 18 year old prospect from Australia and bounced around in the minors/australian leagues for 9 professional seasons. A fine start...

Bring the POW-a

In the last 7 games Mark Reynolds has hit 7 home runs with 9 RBI. This surge has led in overtaking Chad Tracy for 5th all-time in franchise HRs. The kid is moving fast.

.. from an article on azcentral.com

"Strong safety Adrian Wilson and several of his teammates are motoring around campus on Segways, a trend set last year by receiver Larry Fitzgerald.

Wilson was asked was he renting or buying. "They wouldn't put 'A-Dub' on it if I was renting it," he said with a smile, pointing to his name near a wheel."

Glad to see the money didn't change him!

The Red Wizard

In looking to the d-backs future I found out something about the past. Players get remembered for different reasons. Gonzo for the winning hit in the world series, Tony Womack for stealing bases and hitting a grand slam on father's day just after his own father had passes away, Matt Williams swinging at a slider low and away, or BK Kim throwing wild sliders that hit players even though they swung at them.

Chad Tracy is generally remembered for having red hair and hurting his knees. He has been on the team now for six seasons and is third all time in games. His career stats are not mind blowing but he ranks surprisingly high on a number of lists.

Third in games played, 5th all-time in HRs, 4th in RBI, 4th in hits, 3rd in doubles (1 behind Steve Finley for 2nd), and 6th in batting average.

His statistical output is pretty remarkable considering he has missed significant time in each of the past 3 seasons and has really only played 4 and a half full seasons, missing nearly 200 games with injuries (mostly knee problems). In only his second season he hit 27 home runs while hitting over .300. His power numbers dropped a little bit in his third year but he still posted 41 doubles, 80 RBI, and 20 HRs to go with his .281 average. Had he stayed healthy, he'd be our franchise first baseman and would rank second in doubles, HRs, RBI, and hits to only Luis Gonzalez.

On this day, Tracy is only 29 still, and could've potentially gone on to be the most productive diamondback in team history, but injuries de-railed what was a promising career. He may be with the team another year or two but he'll have to rebound and finally stay healthy to regain some playing time. I hope he does it, he deserves a lot more credit than he gets.

The New Baby Backs

I really have to give the d-backs a hand. I hate to admit it but I see what they're trying to do. Some teams have identities, a style of play that defines the team. The Tigers try to smack the ball out, the Athletics and Cardinals small ball you to death and lean on a big bat (Maris-Pujols, ASU Star Reggie Jackson-Jason Giambi). The Yankess breed prospects and flip them for stars, and the Red Sox cheat. The d-backs do not operate like most teams, but a system is starting to emerge. It is different this time because we our grooming our own prospects at such a great pace, they are becoming every day players at an early age and we're starting to see what kind of player they'll become. I'll break down how they've been modeling the team from the 98-02 core that did so well.

When most people think about the diamondbacks and their great players, they think of pitching. The team understands that pitching wins you playoff games. They pay for pitching with 7 of their top 10, including 4 of the top 5, highest salaries going to stock their rotation and bullpen. It should also be noted that the d-backs best three offensive players (Reynolds, Upton, and Montero as of late) are only being paid $1.26 mil cumulative, while relievers Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch are each earning double that individually.

The one-two of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling almost guaranteed a series win if both were slated to start. I think I even remember hearing a stat during one of the seasons that Curt Schilling didn't lose a game the entire season if Johnson lost the game before.

The d-backs employ Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in this same fashion, it's really too bad that Webb went down early as he did. It's unfortunate, but depending on the development of three young pitchers (I'll get to that in a minute), we may have seen the last of Webb in a d-backs uniform as we may not pick up his costly option ($8-9mil) due to doubts about his arm. If he and Conor Jackson were healthy, you could be looking at a much better team and possibly two 20 games winners and Cy Young contenders.

Mark Reynolds, 28 HRs-68 RBI-.275/.362/.560, is a more athletic version of Matt Williams, and we'll get him in his prime versus the declining Williams we saw. His defense is starting to turn around and his fielding % is not as bad as you'd think. Matt himself, a gold glove winner, is tutoring him on his fundamentals and footwork and it appears its finally starting to pay off.

Justin Upton, 19 HRs-63 RBI- .301/.374/.546, earned an all-star bid at the age of 21 and reminds everyone of Ken Griffey Jr. Unlike Jr., Upton has a high torque swing but it's still smooth like butta. He shows the tools of a good defensive outfielder he just needs more reps as he wasn't fully converted until the big leagues in a position.

These two players are the #3 and #4 hitters for a long time, I hope, and as the team builds around them their numbers will get significantly better with people on base. They are both top 15 in RBI, top 15 in stolen bases, top 15 in HRs (Reynolds is 2nd), and top 10 in slugging. They also both strike out a lot but a good eye will take care of that.

As for the rest of our positions, it looks like Montero has locked up the catcher spot with his offensive surge, but I can't help to think his pitch calling isn't what it should be yet. Of course we have had 3 shutouts in the past week, so maybe he is getting a feel for the players. Chris Snyder really fits the mold of what our team values. Damian Miller defense and game calling. He was behind the plate for the world series, Randy Johnson's perfect game, and was an average hitter for a catcher. One of the two will be shipped out within a year or two.

Stephen Drew was our SS since the day he was drafted. Injuries have limited him a little bit but it appears he has figured out his swing. He has been a traditionally slow starter but has killed it in June and July and has seen his batting average rise 70 points to .278. Don't forget last year he joined a prestigious group of Nomar Garciaparra and Robin Yount as the only SS to hit 20 HRs, 40 doubles, and 10 triples in only his third big league season. He is a prototypical 2 hitter that will deliver more pop on the bat then a typical 2 hitter would. He will win a gold glove soon when the team starts winning.

I like Upton in right field, I really like Gerardo Parra in center field, and Conor Jackson will be our left fielder next year. This leaves out Eric Byrnes, a highly paid utility outfielder, commander of our top salary, and fourth outfielder. What this does is push Chris Young out of a job. He got paid and he hasn't been the same since. I think he didn't realize the work he needed to be doing to keep improving. It will be a battle between him and Parra for the job next year when we are healthy again.

This leaves second base, and first base as up for grabs. The team looks to shuffle Josh Whitesell and Chad Tracy around, but really neither will be with the team next year. September will bring up red hot Brandon Allen to the big leagues. We got him in a straight up deal from the White Sox for Tony Pena and we believe he is the future at first base. In his first 16 games at AAA Reno he hit 8 home runs, 17 RBI with a .339 avg and an outstanding 1.212 OPS. Oh, and he also stole 3 bases and has stolen as many as 14 in an 84 game season. He also has been working much more on conditioning and weight lifting recently to help move his 6'2" 235lb body. He's only 23 and depending how he does in his September call up and next year in spring training, the job may be his next year to keep.

As for second base who really knows. We have never really given a crap about who's at second after Jay Bell left. And even then we let him suck for a while before we replaced him. Felipe Lopez was doing a pretty good job but he was shipped off.

As for those three young pitchers, that is our current second best pitcher Max Scherzer, Jarrod Parker, and Bryan Augenstein. We've already seen Scherzer pitch 35 major league games now (a typical full season amount of games) and his 3.42 ERA with his dominating fastball looks very promising. His change-up is coming along as is his Mark Prior-like breaking ball. I believe the team will make Dan Haren the Schilling like craftsman and team ace, while Scherzer will take the flamethrower roll and be a potential all-star if his secondary pitches develop.

Jarrod Parker also has "ace" stuff, and is our top ranked prospect (#2 last year, #46 MLB overall). He is only 20 and may be another year before getting the call-up, depending on how long we hold on to Webb, Davis, and Garland. By the time we could see him doing damage in the big leagues, we could have Dan Haren in his prime, Scherzer reaching his peak, and Parker as an impressive big 3.

Bryan Augenstein is a 6'5" 23 year old pitcher who got his first taste of the big leagues after starting his season in AA with a 5-0 record, .078 ERA, and only 4 walks in 34 innings. After his stint in the majors he was promoted, in a way, to AAA. His minor league career ERA is 2.92. He is deceptively effective as he doesn't strike out a ton of people but relies on his great accuracy to get him by.

Now comes where we look at the 2001 world series team and what our team is trying to accomplish with our current prospects.

From game 7 of the World Series along with our team in 2010 (or at least slightly twisted in my favor):

SS Womack - blazing fast - OF Gerardo Parra isn't a blazer, but he's a slapper and high on-base guy.
2B Counsell - good defense, clutch hitter - SS Stephen Drew. He will upgrade this spot in the line-up.
LF Gonzalez - He hit for average, HRs, doubles - OF Justin Upton can also run, throw, and play d.
3B Williams - Absolutely crushed the ball, and struck out a ton - 3B Reynolds is that minus the gold glove.
CF Finley - Mostly a doubles and average hitter, he also played excellent defense. OF Jackson will rake in the RBI in this spot.
RF Bautista - C Montero will get a try up in the lineup if he keeps producing. Needs to work on his game calling.
1B Grace - This will be 1B Brandon Allen most likely, potential power and base stealer, he could move up the lineup.
C Miller - This will be whoever our second baseman is most likely...

Our pitchers were:
P Curt Schilling - Dan Haren will only get better as he isn't a "hard" thrower but uses his mind to win.
P Randy Johnson - Scherzer won't be as good as RJ, but no one will. He is very fun to watch.
-- Here is where you put Jarrod Parker. Speed, four pitches, and improving location*--
P Brian Anderson - Doug Davis will probably be around and he is actually getting better over the past 3 years. He's the new Jamie Moyer.
P Miguel Batista - Augenstein is deceptively effective, just as Batista was. Hopefully he doesn't write poetry though.

*The fifth spot was really a mixture of below average journeymen (Greg Ellis, Albie Lopez, Bobby Witt)

Injuries and an identity crisis struck this team early but next year we expect to contend again. I wouldn't be surprised to see packages of Webb, Chris Young, Chris Snyder, or Chad Tracy shipped at some point for a star pitcher, power hitting 1B, or veteran 2B.

--

Music: Busta Rhymes - Anarchy

Harden Dropping Like a Lead Balloon!

According to the most recent ESPN fan poll, James Harden has fallen out of the first round all-together!

At least Chad Ford has faith. I mean I know he doesn't seem to be the most athletic 2 guard ever but c'mon...

The Smartest Man in Ball

Who is the smartest man in baseball? Apparently not a sabermetrician, but Russ Ohlendorf. This name my sound familiar. He was a fourth round draft pick by the d-backs and was making great progress through our program when we decided to throw him in a deal to the Yankees, I believe the one that brought us back Randy Johnson in 2006. Flash forward to the this year, and baseball is happening somewhere in Pittsburgh. I have not confirmed this. Ohlendorf is part of a Pirates rotation that includes the likes of Benny Masters, Johnny Martinez, Luke Jackson, and some other names that I made up rather then looking up their rotation. I do know however that Ohlendorf is 5-5 with a mid 4 ERA's, which on any other team would look something like 7-4 with a 3.85 ERA. He's throwing a 95 mph sinker with deadly accuracy and is one of the most promising arms in the NL Central.

So back to his genious. He scored a 798 (one question off a perfect) on his math SAT and graduated Princeton. Then he wrote a 162 page thesis on the MLB draft using advanced statistics and Bill Smith's win-shares. He determined by studying the 12 year careers of every draft pick from 1989-1993 that paying the signing bonus of a draft pick leads to a 60% return over signing a free agent. Basically this means for every player invtested from 89-93, lets say $1 was invested, that player returned $1.60 to your organization the first year, $2.56 the next, and so on. This is remarkable considering the pre-fucked up stock market averaged 6-7% return. There is a great ESPN article somewhere that goes through more detail but I thought I would just summerize it for people who don't actually care.

This leads to an interesting new concept though. What if teams started offering investors shares of a player's productivity. Paying a 4th round draft pick, such as Ohlendorf, will cost a team about $280,000. If the return is so great, presumably, why not invest 10% in to a minor league player, with the promise of such high returns. This could lead to sports brokering and almost like a publically traded entity. Let's say your player makes the majors and banks on a multi-million dollar contract. Well if you invested 10%, the club owes you a cut right? With the huge amount of players and the long term investment of a club, there will certainly be busts, and a lot of them, but it would be something to look in to. Would you risk money on a player if the return before free agency could be $33 million (Jason Giambi)?